Estimating and forecasting the impacts of COVID-19 in the transport sector

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Hosted by the Forecasting and Aviation Transport Knowledge Hub, three presentations will be given covering Covid19 impacts on transport.

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The impact of Covid 19 on New Zealand Aviation Activity

Joe Dewar (Civil Aviation Authority)

The impact of the Covid 19 pandemic on the New Zealand aviation sector was, and remains, significant. This presentation will examine the effects on aviation activity, specifically aircraft movements and flight hours, based on activity data gathered and analysed by the CAA. It will also touch on some of the safety aspects of changes in activity levels.

Joe is the Manager of the Intelligence Team at the New Zealand Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). The team works with aviation sector data and undertakes and analysis in order to help the CAA to be an intelligence led and risk based regulator.

Recovery, resurgence and results: public transport usage in reality vs our recovery scenarios

Peter Cockrem (Waka Kotahi)

Public transport took a big hit in patronage and revenue during the COVID-19 response. How has the recovery and resurgence looked compared to our mid-lockdown scenarios? Transport demand forecasts were prepared for Waka Kotahi in the early days of the pandemic by L.E.K. Consulting, PwC and Europium with input from Auckland Forecasting Centre, Auckland Transport and Waka Kotahi. Join this session for a retrospective look at the value of estimates, some nationwide context, and a chat about what happens next!

Peter is a Senior Advisor in Transport Policy and part of the Waka Kotahi COVID-19 National Emergency Response Team Public Transport Workstream. His background is in engineering, analytics, and biking round the world.

Household travel in New Zealand under COVID 19 alert levels

Jennifer McSaveney and Julie Mugford (Ministry of Transport)

Normally, we study household travel using the New Zealand Household Travel Survey (NZHTS) and face to face surveying. Due to the COVID restrictions, we had to stop face to face surveying in March 2020. As a substitute, from April until August 2020, we ran a panel survey (C19TS) of previous NZHTS participants. In this presentation we will present a selection of the results found.

Jennifer has been a scientist and data analyst at the Ministry of Transport since 2008. Her areas of interest include the New Zealand Household Travel Survey, road safety, surveying, and transport and society.

Julie is a data analyst at the Ministry of Transport and has a background in applied mathematics. Her areas of interest include the New Zealand Household Travel Survey, and developing a national agent based model of transport in New Zealand.

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