Presentation 1: Evaluation of the 2018 Government Policy Statement on land transport

An independent evaluation for the Ministry of Transport examined the impact of GPS 2018 on transport investments and investigated factors that affected the efficiency and effectiveness of GPS 2018 in influencing transport outputs and outcomes while it was in effect from July 2018 to June 2021. A detailed analysis of transport investment data from Waka Kotahi and interviews with sector stakeholders informed this assessment.

Overall, the evaluation found some progress towards the significant shifts in investment strategy signalled by GPS 2018, particularly the intended change in the mix of investments towards public transport. However, transformational aspects of GPS 2018, such as continued walking and cycling improvements and new investment in transitional rail, road safety promotion, and rapid transit, faced challenges in meeting expectations.

The factors underlying these challenges were a mix of funding constraints, the need to develop new capacity and capability in the transport planning system, the fact that GPS 2018 was finalised relatively late in the planning cycle, and external factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The research highlights the tension between the GPS as a tool for transformative change whilst having sufficient consistency between successive GPS to build delivery momentum.

Government Policy Statement on land transport (GPS) 2018 Evaluation

Speakers: Adrian Field and Aaron Schiff

Adrian Field is the Director of Dovetail Consulting and an evaluation specialist with over 20 years of experience. Adrian has led the design, implementation and reporting of research and evaluation projects from diverse areas, including the transport, health, community, creative and urban planning sectors. His work helps individuals and organisations decide about funding, service development, and delivery.

Aaron Schiff is an independent consulting economist and data scientist. He specialises in applying quantitative and economic analysis to evaluations, policy development, and investment decisions.

Presentation 2: Evaluating modal shift in the Government Policy Statement on land transport

This study evaluates how mode shift signals in the 2018 Government Policy Statement on land transport (GPS) have been interpreted and implemented. Our methodological approach involved quantitative and qualitative data analysis guided by an evaluation framework. The evaluation framework included three opportunity points to observe changes supporting mode shift (what is a priority, what gets funded, and what gets monitored) across national, regional, and local decision-making scales for the three GPS periods – 2015, 2018, and 2021.

An initial stocktake of indicators to gather and assess existing data and indicators from various sources to populate the framework. Indicators of mode shift outcomes (e.g., the number of people travelling by travel mode) were readily available. Still, it takes time to see the outcome change, and it is difficult to attribute it to the GPS (compared to other factors). What activities get included and funded through the National Land Transport Plan (NLTP) demonstrate changes in priorities and can provide an early indication of the degree of GPS influence.

Analysis of 2015, 2018, and 2021 Transport Investment Online data and in-depth interviews with transport practitioners showed that while the trend is towards funding more mode shift activities through the NLTP, it gradually moves over time. Recommendations focus on addressing the small margins for change given committed funds, limited capacity within the sector and council budgets, and challenges planning and funding the complex, network-based changes needed to bring about mode shift.

Speakers: Vivienne Ivory and Daniel Cooper

Vivienne Ivory is a Technical Principal, Social Science, Resilience and Public Health at WSP’s Research & Innovation Centre in Petone. Her research starts with the question – ‘if I reside here, how do I live well? She is a leading researcher in many public-funded research programmes addressing the structural determinants of health and wellbeing. As part of her work, she develops tools to benchmark and monitor New Zealand’s’ environments, including developing frameworks and indicators so we can see how well our transport investments and infrastructure are meeting our needs.

Daniel Cooper is a researcher in the Social & Behaviour Science Team at WSP. He has experience working on many transport and urban planning projects, particularly transport mode shift, community outcomes, and geospatial insights. For the GPS project, Daniel worked on several aspects, including practitioner interviews and analysis of transport investment data.

An evaluation of modal shift in the Government Policy Statement (GPS) on land transport

By registering for this event, you agree to follow the Chatham House Rules. For any questions, media and interview opportunities please email knowledgehub@transport.govt.nz. The presentation will be made available following the event on the Transport Knowledge Hub website here.

Regards,

Transport Knowledge Hub

Evaluating GPS 2018: Webinar