We construct a new government-sourced measure of Categorical Economic Policy Uncertainty (i.e., GovCEPU) through textual analysis, capturing uncertainties in monetary, fiscal, and trade policies. Using the unique case of Vietnam, a country characterized by its sophisticated relationships with China and the United States together with strong government intervention in economic activities, we find that compared to existing news-based indices, the GovCEPU measures consistently reflect higher levels of policy uncertainty. Impulse response analyses indicate that rising GovCEPU is associated with weaker macroeconomic outcomes. Further tests show that banks face heightened risks during periods of increased monetary and fiscal policy uncertainty, while manufacturing firms experience declining performance and reduced capital expenditures in response to growing trade policy uncertainty. By relying on official government sources, our approach offers a novel alternative to media-based measures of policy uncertainty.
A working paper version of the study can be found at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5296841
Timings
1.00pm: Guests arrive
1.05pm: CoE Introduction
1.10pm: Keynote Speaker
1.45pm: Q&A Session
2.00pm: Event finishes
Wednesday 30th July
1.00pm - 2.00pm
Room R6, Ross Building, Lincoln University
About Our Speaker
Khanh (Harry) Hoang, PhD
Khanh (Harry) Hoang is a Senior Lecturer at Department of Financial and Business Systems, Faculty of Agribusiness and Commerce (AGCM), Lincoln University, New Zealand. He graduated from Lincoln University in 2021 with a PhD in Finance. He currently serves as a member of the Faculty Teaching Committee at AGCM, an executive member of the Finance and Banking Network (FBNet) - AVSE Global, editorial board member and guest editor of several peer-reviewed journals, and an organizing committee member of different international conferences.
Khanh studies empirical financial economics, corporate finance, risk and uncertainty, and sustainable finance with particular interests in exploring corporate responses to macroeconomic, social and political developments, for instances, climate and biodiversity challenges, geopolitical tensions, and policy changes. Khanh is enthusiastic about textual analysis in economics and finance due to its widespread application in empirical analysis. From there, he aims to introduce new measures of macroeconomic and firm-level factors to explore new research areas and benefit the wider academic community.
