NZSA Future Pathways - Wellington

Future Pathways is returning for a seventh year in March. Similar to previous years, we will have presentations showcasing the varied and interesting types of work that actuaries do. The session is aimed at students and younger actuaries, but all members are welcome to attend. We are looking forward to another great turnout this year!

Battle lines – Mergers and Acquisitions in the NZ GI Market and the decline of affordable insurance

After a number of mergers and acquisitions, New Zealand started 2014 with just 2 major General Insurance companies. How did this happen? Since then a number of new entrants backed by local and overseas companies have begun operating in New Zealand: Ando, Trade Me Insurance, Warehouse Money, and Youi. These small operations are able to pick off the best risks from the big incumbents by offering sharp prices for good risks. But do these small insurers have a responsibility to offer affordable insurance to everybody? Do large insurers have a greater ethical burden to offer affordable insurance to everyone, including those most at risk?

Presented by Andrew Curtin and Sam Primrose

The Impact of Autonomous Vehicles on the General Insurance Industry

It has been predicted by Elon Musk that within 10 years, all new private vehicles will be self-driving. Will there still be a market for cheaper non-automated alternatives? The expected timeline for these and other technologies are still unknown, but progress is inevitable. What will the effects of technology be on the insurance industry and in particular how will autonomous vehicles impact the general insurance industry? Based on current crash statistics, general insurance information and a number of assumptions, we predict and quantify some of the expected changes this trend will cause worldwide and specifically in New Zealand.

Presented by Evan Cooper and James Pearson

The Treasury’s Long-term Fiscal Model - Healthcare: An Actuarial Perspective

This model produced by Treasury provides 40-year projections of the Crown’s fiscal position. The 2016 model projects expenditures based on their historical ratios of GDP, bar two notable exceptions – health and education. This presentation will examine the health expenditure projections from an actuarial perspective. We will critically analyse their treatment of the effect of increasing longevity, as well as look at the broader implications of the fiscal model.

Presented by Aaron Park and Marcella Lau