TGLS: Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - Dr Belinda Storey

Join us for our next Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar

We know that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, but which events are changing the fastest? How could the rate of change in these events affect investment decisions in transport infrastructure and the availability of insurance for residential property?

In this talk, Dr Belinda Storey introduces two key concepts: Loss of Design Life and its counterpart, Time to Design Failure, to show how infrastructure planning and budgeting can better account for the long-term impacts of climate change. She will then apply her concept of the Evolving Probability of Exceedance to the potential fiscal liability for the Crown if public insurance is extended to cover escalating flood and inundation risks, particularly as private insurers retreat from inland floodplains and coastal zones.

About the presenter

Belinda Storey is Managing Director of Climate Sigma, an independent research organisation, where she developed the “climate leases” model for valuing property under climate change. In 2017, she coined the term “insurance retreat,” a concept that has shaped national and international conversations on physical climate risk. Her research focuses on the impact of physical climate risk on infrastructure, banking, real estate and insurance.

Belinda holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University in New York, a Master’s degree in Disaster Risk from the University of Canterbury, and a PhD in Economics from Victoria University of Wellington.

She is a director of the State-Owned Enterprise AsureQuality and formerly served on the board of Pamū/Landcorp. Belinda is a member of the Independent Reference Group for the Ministry for the Environment’s Adaptation Framework, chaired by former NZ Super Fund CEO Matt Whineray. In 2024, she advised the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee’s Inquiry into Climate Adaptation.

Previously Belinda was a member of MfE’s Managed Retreat Expert Working Group, chaired by Sir Terence Arnold and Dame Sian Elias; served on the External Reporting Board’s (XRB) External Advisory Panel on Climate-related Financial Disclosures; and helped the New Zealand Green Building Council develop climate scenarios for the property and construction sectors.

In 2022, Belinda was named Wellingtonian of the Year for Science and Technology in recognition of her work in pricing physical climate risk.

About this seminar series

New ideas, innovative concepts, research evidence and expert advice are all crucial to stimulate and inform the Treasury’s economic analysis and advice. Our current theme for guest lectures - Fiscal Policy for the Future - explores the role of stabilising, sustainable and effective fiscal policy. Speakers will provide insights into how fiscal policy can be designed to support government to meet its current and future objectives and obligations while adapting to changing circumstances and delivering value to the New Zealand public.

Fiscal policy has a stabilising role in helping to smooth the business cycle, while sustainability in fiscal policy is foundational for resilience to both shocks and longstanding challenges, such as climate change, technological advancements, and demographic trends. Ensuring effective and value for money expenditure is important so that fiscal policy contributes to the living standards of New Zealanders, both now and in the future.

Please note that the views, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in the Treasury Guest Lecture Series are those of the individual presenters. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government.

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