TGLS: Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar - Professor Doyne Farmer

Join us for our next Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar

We live in an age of increasing complexity, where accelerating technology and global interconnection hold more promise – and more peril – than any other time in human history.

The fossil fuels that have powered global wealth creation now threaten to destroy the world they helped build. Automation and digitisation promise prosperity for some, unemployment for others. Financial crises fuel growing inequality, polarisation and the retreat of democracy. At heart, all these problems are rooted in the economy, yet the guidance provided by economic models has often failed.

Using big data and ever more powerful computers, we are now able for the first time to apply complex systems science to economic activity, building realistic models of the global economy. The resulting simulations and the emergent behaviour we observe form the cornerstone of the science of complexity economics, allowing us to test ideas and make significantly better economic predictions – to better address the hard problems facing the world.

About the presenter

J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics programme at the Institute for New Economic Thinking and Baillie Gifford Professor of Complex Systems Science at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm.

His current research is in economics, including agent-based modelling, financial instability and technological progress. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His past research includes complex systems, dynamical systems theory, time series analysis and theoretical biology. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024.

During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette.

About this seminar series

New ideas, innovative concepts, research evidence and expert advice are all crucial to stimulate and inform the Treasury’s economic analysis and advice. Our current theme for guest lectures - Fiscal Policy for the Future - explores the role of stabilising, sustainable and effective fiscal policy. Speakers will provide insights into how fiscal policy can be designed to support government to meet its current and future objectives and obligations while adapting to changing circumstances and delivering value to the New Zealand public.

Fiscal policy has a stabilising role in helping to smooth the business cycle, while sustainability in fiscal policy is foundational for resilience to both shocks and longstanding challenges, such as climate change, technological advancements, and demographic trends. Ensuring effective and value for money expenditure is important so that fiscal policy contributes to the living standards of New Zealanders, both now and in the future.

Please note that the views, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in the Treasury Guest Lecture Series are those of the individual presenters. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government.

For updates and our latest research visit https://www.treasury.govt.nz/

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