Treasury Guest Lecture with Claudia Sahm: IN-PERSON attendance

Join us for our first Fiscal Policy for the Future seminar

In this seminar, Claudia Sahm will discuss a proposal for strengthening New Zealand’s automatic fiscal stabilisers. Automatic stabilisers are the first line of defence in a recession, with tax collection falling and government expenditure rising naturally in response to a deterioration in economic conditions. Drawing from a research-policy paper commissioned by the Treasury, the seminar will consider whether there is scope to extend New Zealand’s automatic stabilisers by pre-positioning interventions that would otherwise only be made on a discretionary basis during a recession.

In particular, Claudia will consider the feasibility of distributing lump-sum payments directly to households once a pre-determined trigger has been met. The design and implementation challenges, such as size, eligibility, timing, and the availability of quality economic data, are reviewed along with administrative considerations for effective implementation. In addition, model simulations illustrate the potential effects this tool may have on aggregates like GDP, unemployment, and inflation.

Join this hybrid session for your opportunity to engage in a discussion with our guest speaker.

This seminar will be the opening session of the Treasury Guest Lecture Series under the ‘Fiscal Policy for the Future’ theme and will be introduced by Dominick Stephens, Treasury’s Deputy Secretary and Chief Economic Adviser.

About this event

This will be a hybrid event. Please use this site to register if you plan to attend it in person.

If you would like to attend it virtually, please use THIS LINK to register.

About the presenter

Claudia Sahm is a Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has several years of experience advising decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule.

Sahm is the Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and the founder of Sahm Consulting. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve and a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan (2007), and a bachelor’s degree in economics, political science, and German from Denison University (1998).

About this seminar series

New ideas, innovative concepts, research evidence and expert advice are all crucial to stimulate and inform the Treasury’s economic analysis and advice. Our current theme for guest lectures - Fiscal Policy for the Future- explores the role of stabilising, sustainable and effective fiscal policy. Speakers will provide insights into how fiscal policy can be designed to support government to meet its current and future objectives and obligations while adapting to changing circumstances and delivering value to the New Zealand public.

Fiscal policy has a stabilising role in helping to smooth the business cycle, while sustainability in fiscal policy is foundational for resilience to both shocks and longstanding challenges, such as climate change, technological advancements and demographic trends. Ensuring effective and value for money expenditure is important so that fiscal policy contributes to the living standards of New Zealanders, both now and in the future.

For updates and our latest research visit: www.treasury.govt.nz

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